Solana's 18 Month Long Bull Run Against Ether Is Over; XRP Ends Mini-Uptrend
Introduction
After an extraordinary 18-month rally that saw Solana (SOL) outpace Ethereum (ETH) in total returns, the tide has turned. The SOL/ETH ratio—an essential gauge of relative strength—has broken its long uptrend, suggesting Ethereum is poised to outperform Solana in the months ahead. At the same time, XRP’s mini-uptrend has also stalled, pointing to a broader altcoin rotation into Ethereum and Bitcoin. In this in-depth analysis, we explore what drove Solana’s ascent, why ether may now take the lead, and the implications for XRP holders.
1. The Rise and Fall of the SOL/ETH Ratio
1.1 A Historic Outperformance
From September 2023 to early 2025, the SOL/ETH ratio skyrocketed from about 0.011 to a peak above 0.08. During this time, Solana not only capitalized on the waves of DeFi growth and memecoin excitement but also gained traction as a “fast and cheap” alternative to Ethereum. Daily active addresses on Solana surged, total value locked (TVL) soared, and speculative tokens launched on its network made headlines.
1.2 Charting the Inflection Point
However, since February 2025, the ratio has dipped back to the 0.06 mark, breaking through key trendlines that had supported it during various pullbacks. Figure 1 (above) illustrates how SOL’s relative strength peaked in January and has since reversed—a classic indicator that market leadership is shifting.
- Key technical break: The monthly close below the rising 50-week moving average.
- Volume divergences: SOL’s rebounds have come on lower volume compared to past corrections, hinting at waning buyer enthusiasm.
2. Why Ethereum Is Set to Outperform
2.1 Post-Merge Maturity
Ethereum has really turned a corner with The Merge and the upgrades that followed, like Dencun. These changes have tackled a lot of the criticisms it faced in the past, especially those pesky high gas fees and environmental worries. The Dencun upgrade in March 2024 made a significant impact, slashing transaction costs by as much as 30%. This has reignited interest among developers and given a nice boost to layer-2 activity.
- Gas fee trajectory: Average fees have plummeted from over $20 in mid-2023 to below $6 by the first quarter of 2025.
- Layer-2 TVL: The total value locked across Arbitrum, Optimism, and zkSync has now surpassed an impressive $30 billion.
2.2 Real-World Assets and DeFi 2.0
Ethereum’s stablecoin issuance and tokenization of real-world assets (RWAs) have gained traction. Leading protocols now bridge mortgages, bonds, and commodities onto chain, underpinning a more sustainable growth model than purely speculative memecoins.
- Growth metrics: RWA TVL on Ethereum hit $10 billion in Q4 2024, up from $2 billion a year prior.
- Institutional adoption: Major banks are exploring tokenized treasury products, fueling on-chain liquidity.
3. Solana’s Challenges: Network Outages and Regulatory Scrutiny
Despite its strengths, Solana’s network outages—most notably the multi-hour halt in July 2024—shook confidence among users and developers. Combined with recent legal scrutiny over token listings and memecoin rug pulls, the narrative of “unprecedented speed” has been tarnished.
- Outage frequency: Five major interruptions in the last 12 months.
- Security concerns: High-profile hacks and scams on memecoin projects have eroded retail trust.
4. XRP’s Mini-Uptrend Comes to a Halt
Parallel to the SOL/ETH shift, XRP’s brief uptrend—propelled by optimistic court rulings and renewed on-ramp partnerships—has cooled off. Since peaking around $3.00 in December 2024, XRP has retraced to the $2.30–2.40 zone and lost its bullish flag pattern.
Figure 4 (above) illustrates XRP’s recent price action, showing a falling wedge that failed to break higher on strong volume. Key support at $2.25 is now under threat, setting the stage for either a deeper correction or a consolidation phase.
5. Portfolio Implications and Strategy
5.1 Rotation into Ethereum
As SOL's momentum starts to fade and ETH's fundamentals gain strength, a lot of traders are shifting their focus from Solana-based yield farms and memecoins to Ethereum's layer-2 ecosystems and stablecoin liquidity pools.
- Suggested allocation: If you're currently holding less than 15%, think about bumping your ETH exposure up to 25–30% of your altcoin portfolio.
- Top layer-2 choices: Arbitrum, Optimism, and Polygon zkEVM are showing impressive inflows in total value locked (TVL).
5.2 Cautious XRP Positioning
For those rooting for XRP, the next step might be to keep an eye out for a solid bounce back to the $2.50 support level. On the flip side, placing tight stop-losses around $2.20 could help manage any potential losses if the market gets shaky again.
- Bullish scenario: If the remaining SEC appeals are resolved favorably, we could see a surge back up to $4.00.
- Bearish scenario: If we dip below $2.20, we might be looking at a drop down to the $1.80 mark.
6. Conclusion
It looks like Solana’s impressive 18-month bull run over Ethereum has finally come to an end. The shift in the SOL/ETH ratio signals a new era where Ethereum, thanks to its upgrades, the rise of DeFi 2.0, and growing institutional interest, is set to take back the lead in the market. On the other hand, XRP’s recent mini-uptrend seems to have fizzled out, which should make holders a bit more cautious. As the crypto world continues to evolve, it’s a good time for investors to reassess their portfolios and focus on projects that have strong fundamentals, stable networks, and clear paths to regulatory compliance.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a professional advisor before making investment decisions.
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